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Posted by Randy Hill on June 30, 1998 at 15:14:08:
In Reply to: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Banner Ad / Online Survey Combinations posted by Mike Curtis on June 30, 1998 at 12:17:22:
I remember reading about this debacle.
Interestingly enough, the story highlights both our points: intuition and experience in this case probably could have done as good a job as Gallup's scientific method did, simply because there was no way in hell a Republican was going to win in 1936! Experience should have told them who the cars were typically registered to, who typically responds more to surveys, and they should have adjusted accordingly. This isn't science, it's simply common sense! Of course, in some cases, it's not that clear-cut, and so a more formal scientific method would be applicable.
But I definitely agree that the case clearly illustrates the ill effects of non-response bias and poor sample design.
Great story!
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Banner Ad / Online Survey Combinations